Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference betwee