Geopolitics

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

YES 25%
NO 75%
Platform: Polymarket 24h Volume: $73,161 Total Volume: $799,668 Closes: 2026-04-30 Status: open
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such valu
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